People often take shortcuts in problem solving and quickly
arrive at answers. Known as heuristics, these shortcuts may increase the speed
of decisions but may also decrease the accuracy of those decisions. The experiment
used in this assignment deals with inaccurate decisions based on the
conjunction fallacy, where people think the chance of two events happening at
the same time is greater than just one event occurring. However, the chance of
one event occurring is greater than two events occurring; hence, the fallacy.
Access the CogLab demonstration Typical Reasoning. Follow
the instructions to complete the demonstration. Next, answer the following
questions:
For this demonstration, on average, do participants give
higher ratings for single events or conjunctions of events? Based on the
demonstration results, did you make your judgments by using objective
probabilities? Why or why not?
What is a stereotype? How do stereotypes relate to the
findings of this demonstration?
Respond to the following two situations:
You and two of your coworkers have just interviewed a
candidate for a job opening at your law firm. Your boss asks you what
inferences you made about the candidate during the interview. What can you do
to maximize your likelihood of making a correct inference?
John is a young, energetic, muscular, and outgoing
individual. Estimate the following for him:
§ He is tall and
likes sports
§ He is tall, likes
sports, and has lots of friends
0 comments:
Post a Comment